On Monday it was reported by China Daily that that "Xinjiang [is] soon to be back online". This optimistic statement was made by Nur Bekri, chairman of the Xinjiang government and the highest ranking Uyghur official. As much as I want to believe what he says and although I desperately hope for more internet freedom in the province, I would like to share with you five indications why this won't be true:
#1 They're Sending Mixed Signals
Although Nur Bekri is the highest ranking Uyghur, he is not the top dog in Xinjiang - Wang Lequan is. So why doesn't Wang make these comments? Even if you ignore this fact, though, Bekri is sending mixed signals after his press conference last week when he told reporters that he expects new attacks by separatists. In the midst of this heightened state of security do you really think they'll open "full restoration" to the internet?
#2 Hinting at Tightened Control
During this same press conference Bekri also hinted at the need to "manage the Internet more effectively"...or as the China Daily interprets it, "tightening controls over the internet". This seems to support my previous theory that the new amendment to the public security law passed on February 1st is an attempt to build another Great FireWall around Xinjiang. [Read my thoughts about this new security law]
#3 Making News without Making a Commitment
This is another unfortunate example of what I consider 'making news without making a commitment'. Read between the lines with the language used: "...in the near future", "It won't be long...", "as soon as possible". They haven't actually done anything yet, but somehow it's news. Chalk it up to the beauty of politics. What would the harm be in setting a date to open the internet? None I can see, unless of course there isn't really a specific date.#4 Past Actions Create Doubt
Let's look back at what's happened so far:
- December 28, 2009: Xinhua and People's Daily opened
- January 10, 2010: Sina and Sohu are restored, although severely altered
- January 17, 2010: Text messaging restored
- January 20, 2010: International calling restored
- February 5, 2010: 27 more websites restored
Based on this series of events it seems quite unlikely that the next step is "full" restoration. In December they promised a gradual restoration and now they're jumping to full. It doesn't quite add up.
#5 Why Should They?
Throughout this whole ordeal I've been trying to figure out the one question I can't quite answer: what is the purpose of this blackout? It could be they are trying to keep certain facts (or rumors) from leaking or perhaps they are trying to keep foreign influence out. Of course, for the sake of security they could just be trying to interrupt "terrorist communication". If any of these happens to be the answer, though, restoring full access to the internet would be counter-intuitive.You tell me, am I being to cynical? Should I instead be giving Nur Bekri the benefit of the doubt?
